Russia providing Iran with nuclear weapons is not backfiring of US intervention in Iran

I see people ridiculing the US interventions using the claim that U.S. interventions backfired because Russia would provide Iran with nuclear weapons.

This is false on two counts:

1. "Russia would provide Iran with nuclear weapons" FALSE

This claim is rooted in a rhetorical statement by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who suggested that some countries might supply Iran with nuclear warheads in response to U.S. military actions. However, he later clarified that Russia, as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), would not do so. There is no evidence of any plan or intent by Russia to transfer nuclear weapons to Iran, and such a move would be a clear violation of international law.

2. "Russia providing nuclear weapons to Iran counts as backfiring" FALSE

From a non-proliferation standpoint, even if Russia were to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Iran (a highly unlikely scenario), this would still fall far short of Iran actually acquiring its own nuclear arsenal.

In such a hypothetical, Russia would retain control over the weapons, as it does in Belarus.
Iran would not have access to the launch codes, warhead arming systems, or operational authority.

The weapons would come from existing Russian stockpiles, meaning there would be no net increase in global nuclear weapons.

The number of countries in control of nuclear weapons would remain unchanged.
Such an arrangement would still be deeply provocative and destabilising, but not equivalent to Iran becoming a nuclear-armed state, which remains the core concern of non-proliferation policy.

Precedent: Russia has never transferred nuclear weapons to another state.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has not given operational control of nuclear weapons to any other country. As for the transfer of nuclear weapons at all the only exception is Belarus, and even that is limited:

In 2023, Russia began stationing tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory.

However, Russia maintains exclusive control over those weapons.

Belarus does not have independent launch authority.

The deployment includes Russian-controlled Iskander-M systems and Su-25 aircraft modified for nuclear payloads, but any actual use of the weapons would require direct orders from Moscow.

This arrangement is designed to technically comply with the NPT, which prohibits the transfer of control, not mere presence.

When looking at two similar counter-factual worlds beware of false equivalence.