What happens if China moves on Taiwan?: Taiwanese civil society

We live here

There is a night market in Taipei’s Shilin District that has been open since 1913. It survived Japanese colonization, the KMT’s martial law, the 1996 missile crisis, and the last three decades of strategic ambiguity. The stall owners do not think of themselves as a semiconductor chokepoint. They think of themselves as people selling oyster omelets to their neighbors.

We are twenty-three million people who have built a democracy in the shadow of a missile array. Our last three presidential elections had turnout above 70 percent. We have universal healthcare, marriage equality, and a free press. We are not abstractions in a war game. We are not a chip factory with a flag.

The explicit deterrence camp discusses us as a strategic asset. The accommodation realists discuss us as a negotiating problem. The strategic ambiguity camp designed a framework around us without asking whether we wanted to live inside permanent uncertainty. All three treat our future as something Washington and Beijing decide.

We did not ask for this geography. We did not choose to manufacture the world’s most important technology on an island within range of ballistic missiles. What we chose was democracy — and we chose it in the teeth of authoritarian threats that would have stopped most populations from trying.

We want what every democracy wants: to make our own decisions about our own future. Whether that future involves formal independence, the status quo, or some arrangement that preserves what we built is our conversation, not a variable in someone else’s spreadsheet.

Where we concede ground: Our semiconductor leverage is a shield that invites the very threat it deters.

What would change our mind: A credible framework guaranteeing our democracy survives regardless of sovereignty outcome.

Read the full synthesis: What happens if China moves on Taiwan?