## Imagine two couples
In Searcy, Arkansas — population 24,000, anchored by a Church of Christ university — the marriage rate is roughly double the national average. Median household income is below the state median. A dense web of congregational life treats marriage as communal practice: couples matched through church networks, supported through counseling, held by people who notice when things fray.
In Denver, a twenty-nine-year-old couple stares at a spreadsheet. She carries $74,000 in student debt. He earns $52,000 as a paramedic. Childcare for an infant in their zip code runs $21,000 annually. They ran the numbers. Marriage and children would require one of them to leave the workforce. They are not philosophically opposed to family. They are priced out of it.
In 2023, the US marriage rate fell to 6.0 per 1,000 — the lowest since tracking began in 1867.
## Four diagnoses
looks at Searcy and sees what commitment produces when community still believes commitment is not optional. Love, in this framework, is not a feeling. It is a practice. The read the Denver spreadsheet and find the "values" explanation insulting to people who did the math.
An anthropologist raises her hand. The "traditional" nuclear family — breadwinner father, homemaker mother — became dominant only after World War II. Before that, American families were multigenerational, often arranged. The argue that what we call weakening is reversion to the variety that characterized most of human history.
The think all three are asking the wrong question. The relationship that worked at twenty-five becoming a prison at forty is not a failure of values or economics. It is a developmental transition the culture has no language for.
## What everyone agrees on
Children in unstable households show worse outcomes on education, emotional regulation, and mobility. The argument is not about whether stability matters. It is about what produces it. South Korea — deeply Confucian, intense social pressure to marry — hit a fertility rate of 0.72 in 2023. Cultural infrastructure intact. Economics brutal. One country, four diagnoses, and the data does not cleanly vindicate any of them.
Where do you stand?
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