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I’m curious about using polls and prediction markets to gauge things like this. There’s a relevant prediction market based on the results of a poll here: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-tim-walz-win-the-vp-debate?play=false Walz started the night at ~64% chance of... I haven’t watched the footage or followed the story much, so I don’t have much to offer other than agreement with you. My "credibility" (or epistemic status) is something rough like working off bayesian priors: seems like getting hit by shrapnel is far more likely than being... - annabeth...
Tech guy thinks it’s possible! I just did a manual test drive of this teal-adjusted scoring system with the results of 18 people I know, and here’s the average: Average of original 18 scores: Teal 26% Amber 25% Green 24% Red 12% Orange 10% Magenta 6% Average of same 18... - annabeth...
- yurio...
updated list: Platforms with 1-5 Million Monthly Active Users Citizen (local safety): ~5 million MAU AllTrails: (hiking) ~4 million MAU VRChat (VR): ~ 4 million MAU Peanut (moms): ~ 3.5 million MAU Letterboxd: (film enthusiasts) ~3 million MAU Bandcamp: (music) ~3-4 million...