Russia crossed an internationally recognized border with 190,000 troops in February 2022, and two years later the argument over why still breaks along fault lines that predate the invasion by decades.
In February 2008, the American ambassador to Russia sent a cable to Washington titled "Nyet Means Nyet." William Burns — one of the most carefully calibrated diplomats in the foreign service — wrote that Ukrainian entry into NATO was the "brightest of all redlines" for the entire Russian political establishment. Not just Putin. The liberal opposition told him. The defense establishment told him. He sent it to the Secretary of State, the NSC, and the Joint Chiefs.
Four months later, NATO's Bucharest summit declared that Ukraine "will become" a member. No timeline. No security guarantees in the interim. A sentence designed to satisfy Washington without alarming Moscow that accomplished the precise opposite of both.
Sixteen years after the cable, on February 24, 2022, Russian cruise missiles hit airfields across Ukraine. By nightfall, Zelensky was filming selfie videos on a darkened Kyiv street to prove he had not fled. Russia bears legal responsibility. 141 nations condemned it. The troops crossed a recognized border. That functions as shared floor. The building above it is where the architecture diverges.
The read the Burns cable the way you read a coroner's report on a death called in advance. Kennan warned in 1997. Burns confirmed in 2008. The backfire pattern repeated on schedule. But by 2008, Russia had already flattened Grozny twice, poisoned Litvinenko in London, and begun probing Georgia. The watched frozen conflicts execute like a playbook someone forgot to classify. The pattern was imperial before NATO made a single promise to Kyiv.
The camp sees the system itself: the Budapest Memorandum guaranteed Ukraine's borders in exchange for its nukes and had no enforcement mechanism. And the camp — the one most often left out of Western analysis — asks why a country of 44 million keeps getting discussed as though it were scenery between two empires.
Whether a neutral Ukraine could have worked is the question nobody tested. Finland itself joined NATO in 2023 without a Russian military response. The dead — hundreds of thousands — cannot adjudicate the counterfactual.
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