security studies
Who is driving the Iran-Israel-US escalation?: Deterrence hawks
Twelve minutes 180 ballistic missiles. October 1, 2024. Shahab-3s and Fattah-1s on trajectories aimed at Nevatim Air Base and Mossad headquarters. The flight time from Iranian launch sites to Israeli targets is twelve minutes. That is not a gesture. That is an attempt.... Who started the Ukraine war?: Structural inevitability
The line from Tallinn to Odessa Draw it. Everything east was part of the Russian Empire for centuries. Everything west was Habsburg, Ottoman, or Polish-Lithuanian. NATO moved across it. Russia pushed back. Ukraine sat on top of it.... What happens if China moves on Taiwan?: The Story
Imagine you are a semiconductor fab Imagine you are the most valuable factory on earth. You sit on an island one hundred miles from a military that has promised to take it back, in a country that has never declared independence, protected by a superpower that has never said...