## The arc bent, and then it bent back
In 1807, the British Parliament passed the Abolition of the Slave Trade Act. William Wilberforce wept in the gallery. Two centuries of moral argument, Quaker petitions, and one massively effective consumer boycott of slave-grown sugar had produced what looked, from the inside, like the most dramatic ethical advance in history.
The Thirteenth Amendment abolished slavery "except as a punishment for crime." By 1900, convict leasing had rebuilt the plantation economy inside the prison system. By 2020, the United States incarcerated more people per capita than any nation on earth — disproportionately Black, disproportionately from the same counties where slavery had been most concentrated. The arc of the moral universe bent, and then it bent back.
## Two libraries, one timeline
Steven Pinker dropped eight hundred pages showing violence declining across every axis — war deaths, homicide, torture. The numbers are not seriously disputed. The hold them like a shield.
A civil rights lawyer in Alabama reads the same timeline and sees a different mechanism. The track what happens after each victory: slavery becomes convict leasing becomes mass incarceration. The vote is extended and then gerrymandered into irrelevance. Progress, in this reading, is a story the winners tell while the system reorganizes.
## The prior question
Both camps assume they know what morality is. The hold that cruelty is wrong the way arsenic is poisonous — independent of belief. If true, progress toward recognizing moral facts is possible the way progress in chemistry is possible.
The hold all three frames simultaneously. The Enlightenment produced the Declaration of Rights and the Terror. The same liberalism that abolished slavery built the machinery that made colonialism profitable. Whether that entanglement is a bug in the arc or the arc itself is the question none of the camps can answer from inside their own frame.
The empirical crux: democracy counts have plateaued since 2006. If they resume climbing by 2035, the progress realists gain ground. If they stall while authoritarian states outperform on stability, the power analysts have the sharper question: progress for whom?
Where do you stand?
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