Venezuela only has a window of opportunity of maybe 5 to 10 years to make money off its oil. Solar and battery technology is catching up fast, and if the country waits too long, its oil resources will no longer be worth much. It will need every cent it can get to repair its economy.

 

The status quo of continued sanctions and embargoes would mean missing this window of opportunity entirely. It would be quite tragic for a country to have had a devastating fight with its close neighbour over a resource that has such a limited shelf life only to end up with nothing.

 

Crucially, this means the government and investors must be incredibly disciplined. They should only invest as much capital as can generate a full return on investment within this short timeframe. Sinking billions into long-term infrastructure that takes decades to pay off would be a secondary disaster if global demand disappears before the debt is cleared.

 

Venezuela needs to be forward-thinking and prepare for the day the oil is not worth extracting. On the bright side, the country will be free from its resource curse one way or another within the decade.

 

Against that backdrop, a final question seems unavoidable: when people call for Venezuelans to rise up against the invasion, are they genuinely acting in the interests of Venezuelans, or are they mainly expressing their own tribal or ideological instincts?