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risk assessment
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Daily Alchemy: a question to think on together
7h ago“When experts say something is low risk but it feels high risk to you, whose read do you trust and why?”
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I want to chip in on the "why I think EMFs aren’t (relatively) harmful" side, so that it gets some representation. From what I remember, the amount of energy in EMF radiation drops off with a distance-squared relationship - 10 times as far away is 100 times less strong - so it... How scared should we be of AI?: AI safety
The bar exam nobody studied for GPT-4 passed the Uniform Bar Examination in the ninetieth percentile. Nobody specifically trained it on legal reasoning. It had been trained on text. The law was in the text. The capability was emergent.... When does being careful become its own kind of reckless?: Action bias
The rate Between December 11, 2020, and August 23, 2021: 340,000 Americans dead of COVID. 1,300 per day. 44 per hour. One every 82 seconds. The agency’s review division had every piece of clinical data it would ever need by February 2021 — tens of millions of real-world doses, a... When is distrusting institutions the rational move?: Selective trust
Same acronym, different institution In 2014, the CDC tracked a measles outbreak in Ohio’s Amish community — 383 cases. Epidemiologists arrived within seventy-two hours, sequenced the virus, traced it to the Philippines, and ended the outbreak in four months.... When is distrusting institutions the rational move?: Rational skeptics
The regression line Bayesian reasoning is elegant until you run out of prior to give. The sequence. 2002: intelligence agencies assess with "high confidence" that Iraq has WMDs. Fabricated sourcing. 4,431 American deaths....