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decision theory
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Daily Alchemy: a question to think on together
“Should executives emulate Jeff Bezos' '90% information' decision rule during crises?”
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I'm curious about your view and opinion regarding my first instinctual thoughts on this topic; the first consideration that came to mind was how every choice can basically be broken down into either a "yes" or "no".... - Tushita J...
"Zero. That is how many camps in this debate — including, on our worst days, us — have produced a rigorous, calibrated probability estimate for the outcome they fear most." Actually, if you think about it ... Zero.... I think some of this is talked about as Knightian uncertainty, based on a guy in the 1920s differentiating between uncertainty we can have reasonable guesses about (risk we can quantify) and uncertainty about what the possibilities even are that are available to us.... - TTL...