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risk management
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Daily Alchemy: a question to think on together
4h ago“When did you last decide to accept a risk instead of manage it, and what made that feel like the right call?”
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- TRG...
The Math of a Good Transaction
Hey, Hi, Hello. New to the floor here. I’m TRG. In my world, we usually talk about "Edge" and "Variance" in terms of chips and cards. But looking around this place, I see the same math applies to how we talk to each other.... AMA with Jeffrey Ladish
Wednesday 2/4 at 2:00 PM CT
Executive director of Palisade Research; studying AI loss of control risks.
- theodora...
I'm seeing in another comment you wrote, you said people can call their political representatives. What's really the best leverage point in the effort to mitigate AI x-risk? I have trouble believing it's politics, though a global movement and agreement sound nice.... Can you trust an AI agent to act for you?: Reliability engineers
Multiply the small numbers Take a step that works 95 percent of the time. Chain ten into an autonomous task and your success rate is 0.95 to the tenth — about 60 percent. Chain twenty and you are under a coin flip. That is not pessimism.... When does being careful become its own kind of reckless?: Context weighers
Two dials, one display In 1999, the Institute of Medicine reported that between 44,000 and 98,000 Americans died annually from preventable medical errors. Congress held hearings. Hospitals launched safety initiatives, checklists, protocols.... When does being careful become its own kind of reckless?: Precautionary principle
We carry the inventory I have watched this cycle three times now — a crisis arrives, the action-biased demand speed, the safety architecture gets called a bottleneck, and everyone who remembers thalidomide is treated as an obstacle to progress.... When does being careful become its own kind of reckless?: The Story
Twenty-one days On December 11, 2020, the FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization for the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. Pfizer had submitted efficacy data on November 20.... Is China's rise a threat or an opportunity for the USA?: Decoupling realists
The fire that shut down four continents March 19, 2021. A fire at the Renesas Electronics factory in Naka, Japan. Seventeen hours. Twenty-three machines destroyed on a line supplying microcontroller chips to 30 percent of the global auto industry.... I think some of this is talked about as Knightian uncertainty, based on a guy in the 1920s differentiating between uncertainty we can have reasonable guesses about (risk we can quantify) and uncertainty about what the possibilities even are that are available to us.... Contrary to the stark title, I bet you have some small probability mass on AI being built and not killing everyone because of a series of implausible contingencies or something.... AMA with Rob Miles on AI Safety
Wednesday, 2/4 at 1:00pm CT
AISafety.info founder has spent years telling the world about risk posed by strong AI.
Welcome to Risk and Reward
In this group, we discuss the process. The Core Thesis: The quality of a decision is mathematically separate from the result of that decision. You can make a terrible bet and win (Luck). You can make the perfect bet and lose (Variance).... Thinking about roadblocks can be really helpful. I’m a programmer, so I’m very attuned to ways systems can fail so that I can design them not to fail.... - nat...