finance

An Introduction. My name is Eric Stevens 

I want to be clear about who I am and why I am here.

I recently published my book, Evolution Mine: Genesis.
You can read it for free here:
https://nowweevolve.com/view-the-book

I made it free on purpose. The idea matters more than the money.

For the last 15 years, I have been working inside the systems most people only argue about from the outside. Global trade. Manufacturing. Supply chains. Policy. Commodities. Labor. Capital flow.

I helped Vietnam enter the World Trade Organization in 2007, ironically on my birthday. I have worked with governments, factories, military-adjacent systems, and private industry. I have seen how decisions made far from communities quietly reshape jobs, materials, and power at the local level.

Most of my life was spent in Los Angeles. I recently moved to Dallas, where the political and cultural polarization is impossible to ignore. The fights feel louder. The solutions feel thinner.

I am a father of six. I am married to an incredible Salvadoran woman. I am politically independent, not because I avoid responsibility, but because I do not believe any single ideology owns the truth.

What I am building is not a movement in the emotional sense. It is an economic one.

Our society talks about systems as if they are beliefs. They are not. Systems are built on inputs. Commodities. Materials. Energy. Logistics. Whoever controls those controls everything downstream.

That insight sits at the center of everything I do.

Through these platforms, I am working on one integrated effort:

Now We Evolve
https://nowweevolve.com

The Bioeconomy Foundation
https://thebioeconomyfoundation.org

American Fiber Group
https://theamericanfibergroup.com

Together, they focus on one question most debates avoid.

What happens if we change the materials the economy depends on?

Hemp and bamboo are not symbols. They are commodities. They grow locally. They scale horizontally. They support regional processing. They anchor manufacturing close to communities. They change money flow, job creation, and who holds power.

This work is not anti-capitalist or pro-corporate. It is pro-reality.

If you want different outcomes, you do not argue harder. You replace the inputs.

That is what I am here to discuss.
Not outrage. Not slogans.
Industrial math, material systems, and practical paths forward.

If that resonates, you are in the right place.

AMA with Adrian Grenier. Wednesday 2/4 at 7:00 PM CT

Entourage star who at the top of the Hollywood game pivoted to an integral spiritual path and farmstead

AMA with Adrian Grenier. Wednesday 2/4 at 7:00 PM CT

Entourage star who at the top of the Hollywood game pivoted to an integral spiritual path and farmstead

Austin's Proposition Q - A misleading text that really grinds my gears. I've received multiple texts from various groups with this language:

We can debate the merits of Proposition Q separately; what I am worked up about is the absolutely false language about "Trump cuts" to city services like fire, EMS, parks, etc. The federal government doesn't fund municipal services*. The federal government shouldn't fund municipal services, and in fact our fire, EMS, and police being independent of the federal government is a fundamental part of states' rights or how our government is intentionally structured. EVEN if I don't support defunding the police, it was absolutely within Austin's right to do so, and that had nothing to do with federal funding. 

*there are grants that impact some of these services, like the transportation grant Trump did cancel that would include parks over the new I-35, but that is not fundamentally a park funding grant.

Key Reasons Taxing Unrealised Gains Is Problematic.  

Liquidity Problems: Taxpayers may not have the cash to pay tax on gains they haven’t actually received. Both mitigation and remediation measures incur additional costs for taxpayers that are not captured as tax revenue to the government (for example, fees and interest on borrowing to cover tax liabilities, opportunity costs from changing investment strategies, the cost of maintaining extra cash reserves to cover unexpected tax bills)

Volatility Risk: Asset values can fall after being taxed, resulting in people paying tax on gains that later disappear (“phantom gains”).

Valuation Difficulties: Many assets, especially private businesses and real estate, are hard to value accurately every year, leading to disputes and administrative headaches.

Administrative Complexity: Annual assessments of unrealised gains create significant record-keeping and compliance burdens for both taxpayers and tax authorities.

Distorts Investment Decisions: May discourage investment in long-term or illiquid assets, harming economic growth and innovation.

Asset Price Distortion Near Tax Time: The approach of the tax assessment date can trigger artificial selling pressure, increased volatility, and price distortions, as investors adjust holdings to minimise their tax liability.

Fairness Concerns: Taxpayers view it as unfair to be taxed on “paper” gains that may never materialise, or to be forced to sell assets just to pay tax.

Double Taxation Risk: You might be taxed on the same gain both when it is unrealised and again when it is realised, unless the system works perfectly to prevent it.

Unpredictable and Negative Government Revenue: Mechanisms to prevent double taxation (such as cost base adjustments and tax refunds when asset values fall) can cause the government to lose revenue in years of market downturns, resulting in unpredictable or even negative tax receipts.

Rarely Used Globally: Almost all countries tax only realised gains; taxing unrealised gains is internationally uncommon and controversial.

Reduced Competitiveness: Increased compliance and cash flow burdens put local businesses at a disadvantage versus competitors in countries without such taxes.

For balance, key reasons why some people argue for tax on unrealised gains:

Anti-avoidance: Some argue taxing unrealised gains prevents indefinite deferral of tax (especially for very wealthy individuals).

Wealth inequality: Wealth taxes (not exactly the same, but related) can target asset-rich, income-poor individuals. Annual net wealth taxes do exist in some countries, but are different from capital gains taxes.

I'm not opposed to Taxing Unrealised Gains because it is evil or fundamentally wrong to do so. I'm opposed to them because taxation policy carries with it a list of pros and cons and there are ways of achieving the same objectives that have far better tradeoffs. And the taxing of unrealised gains has so many cons in comparison.

Good government is about choosing far better options when they are available so we don't have to pay the costs of worse decisions.

What if Tariffs Are a Good Thing? I was surprised to find that this podcast made me wonder whether tariffs would actually be really good for the US economy and, more importantly, for midd-class American people.

With all the raging about how awful Trump is, it's been very hard to find any thoughtful analysis about which parts of his policies might actually be beneficial for Americans.

In this podcast, Ross Douthat (NYT) interviews Oren Cass, the Founder and Chief Economist at American Compass, a conservative think tank. Oren makes a really good case for the following:

• we've been living through a period of mostly-unchecked globalization
• because GDP has been rising, economists generally argue that globalization is good
• HOWEVER, Oren provides compelling reasons why GDP growth is not a sufficient indicator of the health of the economy.  He cites things like increasing income inequality and the overall reduction in purchasing power when you factor things like households now having to have two full-time incomes to buy the same basket of things

The opportunity that tariffs provide is to buffer globalization and proactively re-shape the American economy to be more self-reliant, more inclusive and more balanced (geographically, industry-wise, etc).  For example, Oren notes that globalization has been driving wealth toward tech & financial hubs, like NYC, Austin, San Francisco, while middle America has been largely stagnant. With more manufacturing, job distribution could be more equitably spread across the country.

What I liked most about this podcast were a few things:

• it provides a thoughtful challenge to the mainstream chatter that "tariffs are bad!" and "Trump is ruining our economy!"
• the basis for tariffs is actually to improve the well-being of middle Americans who are not participating in the white collar tech and financial services boom
• that it challenges the assumptions that an unfettered globalized world economy is what works best.  Maybe it isn't?

A Plausible Oncoming Financial Storm. So, the economic situation might end up pretty dire if the following is correct. I'm posting this line-of-thought in case someone wants to sanity check it.

"To boost the British economy, I'd tax all foreigners living abroad."
-- Monty Python's Flying Circus

My read on the current economic order is that America is an empire. Now empires are supposed to extract tribute, and America might at first glance not appear to do that. But I claim it does. Instead of direct taxation the mechanism seems to be:

* Use a combination of diplomatic carrots and military sticks to make the dollar the world's reserve currency.
* Inflate the dollar by "borrowing" from the federal reserve (read: printing more dollars but with extra steps).
* Spend the printed money to subsidize American citizens in a bunch of ways to haphazardly offset the effect of the inflation being a pretty regressive taxation regime by default (medicaid, social security, food stamps, government jobs, etc.)

Now my fear is, if the Trump administration messes up our foreign policy badly enough (e.g. by unnecessarily hitting allies with the tariff stick, and showing signs that they will not in fact defend countries like Ukraine that the US had agreements with) the dollar might lose its reserve currency status. If this happens, we might be in for some pretty nasty levels of inflation (because, what happens if all those foreigners and corporations start dumping their dollar reserves?)

Anyway, I'm curious what people think of this line of reasoning.

#deeptakesonhottakes

Trump is doing his part to make money great again (by embracing Bitcoin). Preamble:

At this point I've spent a few thousand hours studying Bitcoin. It's a fascinating rabbit hole and a subject I've become passionate about. Here are some of the conclusions I've reached:  

1. Bitcoin is by far the best form of money that humanity has come up with so far. It’s accessible to anyone with an internet connection (truly global and egalitarian), its supply is finite (something we’ve never had before) and it separates money from state, which is really good for a number of reasons. To name just a couple: it curtails governments' ability to wage endless wars (that are, at least in part, funded with the creation of new money/debt) and it prevents them from constantly inflating the money supply and devaluing the value of each unit of the currency (the scourge that we all know as ""inflation"").  
2. Since it's still in the early days of its valuation, Bitcoin's "price" (exchange rate might be more accurate) in the short-term is very unpredicatable and volatile. But in the medium to long-term, it's becoming more and more valuable by orders or magnitude (hundreds of dollars, to thousands, to tens of thousands and soon hundreds of thousands per bitcoin). This makes it an excellent savings vehicle for the long-term. It's also a form of money that is unconfiscatable which can be extremely useful to people living under totalitarian governments, fleeing war zones, etc.
3. Everything else in ""crypto"" besides Bitcoin is at best, a startup with a yet-to-be-proven use case and in most cases more like a scam. This can be quite infuriating to those of us who understand Bitcoin because every single crypto scam only serves to further confuse the mainstream and to make people assume that Bitcoin must also be a scam.

Deep Take:

Trump has just announced that the US government will create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, meaning they will be holding (and likely buying) bitcoin as a strategic asset, similar to how they hold gold, oil, etc. As much as I might dislike Trump and many of his policies, I think this is something that can have incredibly good long-term consequences for the world.  

I do think it’s a shame that since it's Trump doing this, progressives and people on the Left are probably even less likely to adopt Bitcoin. I imagine for most people who don't like Trump it will just seem like another of his crazy/dangerous schemes. I think that's a shame because when used as long-term savings technology, adopting Bitcoin can be enormously empowering financially and in terms of enhancing personal responsibility. I've lived this in my own experience and it's something that I wish for others. 

Nonetheless, I’ve always considered myself more of a progressive and I still took the time to look into Bitcoin, so it's definitely possible. I hope others on the Left can manage to be independently-minded enough to not miss the boat. I also think that only someone as “out there” as Trump could have allowed something as revolutionary and "against the grain" as a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to happen in the US government. Evolution, as they say, works in mysterious ways.

Trump is being advised by Wall Street veterans like Howard Lutnick (Commerce Secretary) and Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary) who understand Bitcoin and its potential future value. And yeah, they're probably mostly in it to make money. Lutnick, by his own admission, owns hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of Bitcoin. But that's not the point. The point is that Bitcoin is like a Trojan Horse. I'm pretty sure people in the US government and Wall Street (and subsequent governments around the world who adopt a similar strategy) will do their very best to co-opt Bitcoin. They'll try to take it over and neutralize it as a threat to their monetary monopolies. But Bitcoin has proven its anti-fragility time and again. Not only does it ""refuse to die"" but every time it's been attacked, it comes back stronger and even more resilient. I fully expect that to continue.

And so by taking the first steps towards the US government adopting Bitcoin (and thereby legitimizing it in the eyes of the world), Trump and co. are accelerating the transition from government-backed inflationary currencies to a form of money that can’t be inflated or manipulated by anyone and can be used by everyone. It's going to be a long and messy transition, but I think it's a very, very good thing for humanity's future. As the saying goes: ""even a broken clock is right twice a day." : )

#DeepTakes

Trump is doing his part to make money great again (by embracing Bitcoin). Preamble:

At this point I've spent a few thousand hours studying Bitcoin. It's a fascinating rabbit hole and a subject I've become passionate about. Here are some of the conclusions I've reached:  

1. Bitcoin is by far the best form of money that humanity has come up with so far. It’s accessible to anyone with an internet connection (truly global and egalitarian), its supply is finite (something we’ve never had before) and it separates money from state, which is really good for a number of reasons. To name just a couple: it curtails governments' ability to wage endless wars (that are, at least in part, funded with the creation of new money/debt) and it prevents them from constantly inflating the money supply and devaluing the value of each unit of the currency (the scourge that we all know as ""inflation"").  
2. Since it's still in the early days of its valuation, Bitcoin's "price" (exchange rate might be more accurate) in the short-term is very unpredicatable and volatile. But in the medium to long-term, it's becoming more and more valuable by orders or magnitude (hundreds of dollars, to thousands, to tens of thousands and soon hundreds of thousands per bitcoin). This makes it an excellent savings vehicle for the long-term. It's also a form of money that is unconfiscatable which can be extremely useful to people living under totalitarian governments, fleeing war zones, etc.
3. Everything else in ""crypto"" besides Bitcoin is at best, a startup with a yet-to-be-proven use case and in most cases more like a scam. This can be quite infuriating to those of us who understand Bitcoin because every single crypto scam only serves to further confuse the mainstream and to make people assume that Bitcoin must also be a scam.

Deep Take:

Trump has just announced that the US government will create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, meaning they will be holding (and likely buying) bitcoin as a strategic asset, similar to how they hold gold, oil, etc. As much as I might dislike Trump and many of his policies, I think this is something that can have incredibly good long-term consequences for the world.  

I do think it’s a shame that since it's Trump doing this, progressives and people on the Left are probably even less likely to adopt Bitcoin. I imagine for most people who don't like Trump it will just seem like another of his crazy/dangerous schemes. I think that's a shame because when used as long-term savings technology, adopting Bitcoin can be enormously empowering financially and in terms of enhancing personal responsibility. I've lived this in my own experience and it's something that I wish for others. 

Nonetheless, I’ve always considered myself more of a progressive and I still took the time to look into Bitcoin, so it's definitely possible. I hope others on the Left can manage to be independently-minded enough to not miss the boat. I also think that only someone as “out there” as Trump could have allowed something as revolutionary and "against the grain" as a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to happen in the US government. Evolution, as they say, works in mysterious ways.

Trump is being advised by Wall Street veterans like Howard Lutnick (Commerce Secretary) and Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary) who understand Bitcoin and its potential future value. And yeah, they're probably mostly in it to make money. Lutnick, by his own admission, owns hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of Bitcoin. But that's not the point. The point is that Bitcoin is like a Trojan Horse. I'm pretty sure people in the US government and Wall Street (and subsequent governments around the world who adopt a similar strategy) will do their very best to co-opt Bitcoin. They'll try to take it over and neutralize it as a threat to their monetary monopolies. But Bitcoin has proven its anti-fragility time and again. Not only does it ""refuse to die"" but every time it's been attacked, it comes back stronger and even more resilient. I fully expect that to continue.

And so by taking the first steps towards the US government adopting Bitcoin (and thereby legitimizing it in the eyes of the world), Trump and co. are accelerating the transition from government-backed inflationary currencies to a form of money that can’t be inflated or manipulated by anyone and can be used by everyone. It's going to be a long and messy transition, but I think it's a very, very good thing for humanity's future. As the saying goes: ""even a broken clock is right twice a day." : )

#DeepTakes

Looking for bridges in views about the second Trump administration. I'm currently aware of four views:

• This is the worst thing ever, I'm terrified
• This is the best thing ever, I'm thrilled
• I don't pay attention to politics, so far my life feels exactly the same
• Some of the changes seem pretty cool so far, but we'll see

Where are the middle grounds? I want to know how to build bridges in my personal connections when politics comes up these days.

Timeline of Events in Brian Thompson Assassination. On December 4, 2024, UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was assassinated outside the New York Hilton Midtown. The suspect, later identified as Luigi Mangione, 26, shot Thompson multiple times before fleeing on an e-bike. Thompson was pronounced dead shortly after. Mangione, who stayed in NYC for 10 days prior, was arrested on December 9 in Pennsylvania and charged with second-degree murder. The attack is believed to be a symbolic act targeting the healthcare industry.

November 24, 2024

• 10:11 p.m.: Suspect arrives in New York City on a Greyhound bus from Atlanta, Georgia.

November 24 – December 3, 2024

• Suspect checks into the HI New York City Hostel on the Upper West Side using a falsified New Jersey ID and pays in cash.
• He stays at the hostel for ten days, checking out on December 3.

December 4, 2024

• 5:30 a.m.: Suspect leaves the hostel, likely by bike.
• 6:15 a.m.: Suspect exits the 57th Street F Train subway station.
• 6:17 a.m.: Suspect purchases coffee, water, and granola bars at a Starbucks near the New York Hilton Midtown hotel.
• 6:30 a.m.: Surveillance footage captures the suspect walking while talking on the phone.
• 6:39 a.m.: Suspect arrives in front of the New York Hilton Midtown hotel and waits.
• 6:44 a.m.: Brian Thompson leaves his hotel. The assailant shoots him multiple times, then flees northbound via a pedestrian walkway.
• 6:46 a.m.: Police respond to a 911 call reporting the shooting.
• 6:48 a.m.: Officers find Thompson with multiple gunshot wounds. He is taken to Mount Sinai West hospital. The assailant is seen riding an e-bike into Central Park.
• 6:59 a.m.: Suspect is seen riding a bike on West 85th Street.
• 7:04 a.m.: Suspect enters a northbound taxi at 86th Street and Amsterdam Avenue.
• 7:12 a.m.: Thompson is pronounced dead at Mount Sinai West hospital.

December 9, 2024

• Morning: Luigi Mangione, 26, is arrested in Altoona, Pennsylvania, in connection with the assassination.
• Afternoon: Mangione is charged with second-degree murder and other related offenses.

December 11, 2024

• Mangione appears in court, contests extradition to New York, and is held without bail pending a governor’s warrant.

Timeline of Events in Brian Thompson Assassination. On December 4, 2024, UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was assassinated outside the New York Hilton Midtown. The suspect, later identified as Luigi Mangione, 26, shot Thompson multiple times before fleeing on an e-bike. Thompson was pronounced dead shortly after. Mangione, who stayed in NYC for 10 days prior, was arrested on December 9 in Pennsylvania and charged with second-degree murder. The attack is believed to be a symbolic act targeting the healthcare industry.

November 24, 2024

• 10:11 p.m.: Suspect arrives in New York City on a Greyhound bus from Atlanta, Georgia.

November 24 – December 3, 2024

• Suspect checks into the HI New York City Hostel on the Upper West Side using a falsified New Jersey ID and pays in cash.
• He stays at the hostel for ten days, checking out on December 3.

December 4, 2024

• 5:30 a.m.: Suspect leaves the hostel, likely by bike.
• 6:15 a.m.: Suspect exits the 57th Street F Train subway station.
• 6:17 a.m.: Suspect purchases coffee, water, and granola bars at a Starbucks near the New York Hilton Midtown hotel.
• 6:30 a.m.: Surveillance footage captures the suspect walking while talking on the phone.
• 6:39 a.m.: Suspect arrives in front of the New York Hilton Midtown hotel and waits.
• 6:44 a.m.: Brian Thompson leaves his hotel. The assailant shoots him multiple times, then flees northbound via a pedestrian walkway.
• 6:46 a.m.: Police respond to a 911 call reporting the shooting.
• 6:48 a.m.: Officers find Thompson with multiple gunshot wounds. He is taken to Mount Sinai West hospital. The assailant is seen riding an e-bike into Central Park.
• 6:59 a.m.: Suspect is seen riding a bike on West 85th Street.
• 7:04 a.m.: Suspect enters a northbound taxi at 86th Street and Amsterdam Avenue.
• 7:12 a.m.: Thompson is pronounced dead at Mount Sinai West hospital.

December 9, 2024

• Morning: Luigi Mangione, 26, is arrested in Altoona, Pennsylvania, in connection with the assassination.
• Afternoon: Mangione is charged with second-degree murder and other related offenses.

December 11, 2024

• Mangione appears in court, contests extradition to New York, and is held without bail pending a governor’s warrant.